Matt Kenseth did more than ride some canny pit strategy and good luck to a victory Sunday in Dover at the FedEx 400; he may well have locked up a Chase spot.
Kenseth, along with Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch, now has two wins on the season, his Dover victory paired with his Texas one from last month. And with the new wild card format which takes two drivers based on wins, that means Kenseth needs only to finish in the top 20 to have a realistic shot at the Chase.
Let’s roll out some stats, shall we? Kenseth currently sits in sixth place. Tony Stewart is currently in 10th, 12 points behind Kenseth. Marcos Ambrose, who finished two spots behind Kenseth, now holds the 20th spot, and is 61 points behind Kenseth.
Now, 12 points isn’t much of a cushion; one bad race and Kenseth could drop out of the top 10. But even if he does, recent history suggests he’s in good shape. Here are the drivers in the entire history of the Chase who have won races without making the Chase (note that we’re only counting regular-season races in this total):
2010: Jamie McMurray (twice); Ryan Newman, Juan Pablo Montoya, David Reutimann (once each)
2009: Kyle Busch (four times); Matt Kenseth (twice); David Reutimann, Joey Logano (once each)
2008: Kasey Kahne (twice); Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch (once each)
2007: Greg Biffle, Casey Mears, Jamie McMurray, Juan Pablo Montoya (once each)
2006: Tony Stewart (two pre-Chase wins, three in Chase); Greg Biffle (twice); Kurt Busch (once)
2005: Jeff Gordon (three wins pre-Chase); Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr. (once each); Kasey Kahne (once, ranked 23rd)
2004: Greg Biffle, Rusty Wallace (once each)
In every year, two wins made for a guaranteed in; only twice were two wins not good enough to lead the non-Chasers. And as of right now, only two drivers not in the top 6 have even won a single race: Jeff Gordon (now 14th) and Regan Smith (now 29th, and likely a nonfactor). There are only so many wins to go around, and you’ve got to figure that Denny Hamlin has a few waiting for him, and Johnson, Kyle and Edwards have a few more in their future over the next few weeks.
Nothing’s certain in NASCAR, but Kenseth and his team can breathe a whole lot easier now. You know, because they’re usually so amped up.
History suggests Matt Kenseth may have wrapped up a Chase spot
